Stuart Lessels
Enrich Mortgage Group Ltd.-Ontario
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2024 Real Estate Rollercoaster
December 18, 2024
Year End Summary 2024: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
As we try to purchase and wrap presents for this holiday season, it is a great time to wrap up 2024. From interest rate changes to shifts in mortgage rules, this year has been a rollercoaster for first-time homebuyers, investors, those refinancing mortgages, and realtors alike. Let's dive into the highlights and lowlights of 2024 and see how these changes have impacted the real estate market, and see what could be ahead for 2025.
The Good
Interest Rates Drop
One of the most significant changes this year was the Bank of Canada's decision to reduce its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 3.25%1. This move marked the fifth consecutive rate cut since June 2024, aimed at supporting economic growth and maintaining inflation within its target range1. Lower interest rates have made borrowing cheaper, which is great news for homebuyers and those looking to refinance their mortgages.
Increased Housing Sales
Despite the economic challenges, housing sales saw a notable increase in 2024. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales rose by 12% compared to the previous year2. This surge was driven by lower interest rates and a growing demand for housing in suburban and rural areas as more people embraced remote work.
The Bad
Mortgage Rule Changes
While lower interest rates were a boon for many, changes in mortgage rules added some complexity to the process. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) introduced stricter stress test requirements for uninsured mortgages, making it harder for some buyers to qualify for loans3. This move was intended to ensure that borrowers could handle potential future rate increases, but it also meant that some prospective buyers had to adjust their expectations or delay their home purchases.
Market Volatility
The real estate market experienced significant volatility this year, with fluctuating interest rates and housing prices. The uncertainty surrounding the global economy, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, contributed to this instability. As a result, both buyers and sellers had to navigate a more unpredictable market landscape.
The Ugly
Economic Challenges
Canada's economic growth was lower than expected, with the third-quarter growth coming in below the Bank of Canada's predictions. Early indicators suggest that the GDP might also miss its fourth-quarter target1. Despite multiple rounds of rate cuts, demand did not pick up as anticipated, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.8%, a level not seen since eight years ago outside of the pandemic. These economic challenges have had a ripple effect on the real estate market, impacting affordability and client decisions.
Natural Disasters
The year 2024 was marked by several significant natural disasters that had a profound impact on Ontario and Canada as a whole. Ontario experienced one of its worst wildfire seasons in recent history, with fires ravaging large areas of forest and threatening numerous communities. Eastern Canada, including parts of Ontario, faced severe flooding due to heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt, causing extensive property damage and financial losses. Additionally, Ontario witnessed an increase in tornado activity, with several powerful tornadoes causing destruction in their paths.
These natural disasters led to higher insurance premiums, stricter building codes, and a shift in homebuyer preferences towards safer areas.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As we look forward to 2025, several trends and potential changes could shape the real estate market based on the events of 2024:
Continued Low Interest Rates
Experts predict that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, making it a favorable time for consumers to borrow and invest. The Bank of Canada expects GDP growth to gradually strengthen, supported by lower interest rates, increased consumer spending, and robust demand for exports. This could lead to continued growth in housing sales and refinancing activities.
Stricter Mortgage Regulations
The trend of tightening mortgage regulations is likely to continue into 2025. The OSFI may introduce additional measures to ensure the stability of the housing market and protect borrowers from potential financial risks. Prospective homebuyers should be prepared for more stringent qualification criteria and stress tests.
Increased Demand for Suburban and Rural Properties
The shift towards remote work is expected to persist, driving demand for suburban and rural properties, like the Georgian Bay area! As more people seek larger homes with more space, we may see continued growth in these areas. This trend could also lead to increased development and infrastructure improvements in suburban and rural communities.
Focus on Sustainable and Resilient Housing
In response to the natural disasters of 2024, there will likely be a greater emphasis on building sustainable and resilient housing. This could include stricter building codes, increased use of eco-friendly materials, and a focus on energy efficiency4. Homebuyers and investors may prioritize properties that are designed to withstand extreme weather events and reduce environmental impact.
Impact of the Incoming US President
The incoming US President's policies are expected to have a significant impact on the Canadian economy and interest rates. President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to impose additional tariffs on Canadian exports, which could lead to a 5% hit to Canadian export volumes and risk sending the Canadian economy into a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026. This could result in increased economic hardship within Canada, particularly since trade ties have deepened since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) came into effect in 2020. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will influence the Bank of Canada's actions, potentially leading to further interest rate adjustments.
Why Should You Use a Mortgage Broker Like Me?
Navigating the mortgage market can be tricky, but that's where Mortgage Brokers like me come in. With over a decade of experience and a lifetime of insights from my father's 55-year legacy in the real estate industry, I have the knowledge and expertise to find the best mortgage solutions for even the most challenging financing situations.
Here are a few reasons why you should always contact a Mortgage Broker like me:
- Expertise: With years of experience and a deep understanding of the mortgage market, I can provide valuable insights and advice.
- Access to Multiple Lenders: I work with a variety of lenders, giving you access to a wide range of mortgage products and rates.
- Personalized Service: I take the time to understand your unique needs and find the best mortgage solution for you.
- Save Time and Money: I handle the legwork, saving you time and ensuring you get the best deal possible.
What Should You Do Next?
If you have any questions or need assistance with your mortgage, don't hesitate to contact me. I'm here to help you navigate the mortgage market and secure the best deal for your new or renewing mortgage. Remember, it's always a good idea to consult with a Mortgage Broker to ensure you get the best deal possible.
Feel free to share this article with your friends, family, and colleagues. Let's spread the word and help everyone make informed decisions about their mortgages!
Stay tuned for more insights and tips on navigating the mortgage market, and enjoy the upcoming holiday season! Remember, I'm always here to help you with your mortgage needs. Let's make your homeownership dreams a reality!
Stuart Lessels
Your “Go To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and beyond
(705) 445-1234
Feel free to share this with your clients and colleagues. It’s always good to stay informed and be prepared for what’s coming next in the market! 😊
P.S. If you need any mortgage advice or have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m here to help all across Ontario! 🏡📞
Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rate to 3.25%
December 11, 2024
Bank of Canada Rate Cut: What It Means for You and Your Mortgage
Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rate to 3.25%
The Bank of Canada has announced a significant decision to reduce its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 3.25%. This move marks the fifth consecutive rate cut since June 2024, as the central bank continues its efforts to support economic growth and maintain inflation within its target range.
Reasons Behind the Decision
The decision to cut the interest rate is influenced by several factors, including weak unemployment numbers and poor economic growth. The Bank of Canada aims to stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses. This can lead to increased spending and investment, which helps to support economic growth.
Economic Context
Canada's economic growth has been lower than expected, with the third-quarter growth coming in below the Bank's predictions. Early indicators suggest that the GDP might also miss its fourth-quarter target. Despite four rounds of rate cuts from 5% to 3.75%, demand has not picked up as anticipated. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.8%, a level not seen since eight years ago outside of the pandemic.
Inflation Trends
Inflation has remained within the Bank's 1% to 3% target range. However, the central bank believes that the economy is operating in excess supply and will continue to do so until 2026. This excess supply is one of the reasons behind the decision to cut the interest rate by another 50 basis points.
Future Outlook
Experts predict that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, making it a favorable time for consumers to borrow and invest. The Bank of Canada expects GDP growth to gradually strengthen, supported by lower interest rates, increased consumer spending, and robust demand for exports.
Why Should You Use a Mortgage Broker Like Me?
Navigating the mortgage market can be tricky, but that’s where Mortgage Brokers like me come in. With over a decade of experience and a lifetime of insights from my father’s 55-year legacy in the real estate industry, I have the knowledge and expertise to find the best mortgage solutions for even the most challenging financing situations.
Here are a few reasons why you should always contact a Mortgage Broker like me:
·Expertise: With years of experience and a deep understanding of the mortgage market, I can provide valuable insights and advice.
·Access to Multiple Lenders: I work with a variety of lenders, giving you access to a wide range of mortgage products and rates.
·Personalized Service: I take the time to understand your unique needs and find the best mortgage solution for you.
·Save Time and Money: I handle the legwork, saving you time and ensuring you get the best deal possible.
What Should You Do Next?
If you have any questions or need assistance with your mortgage, don’t hesitate to contact me. I’m here to help you navigate the mortgage market and secure the best deal for your new or renewing mortgage. Remember, it’s always a good idea to consult with a Mortgage Broker to ensure you get the best deal possible.
Feel free to share this article with your friends, family, and colleagues. Let’s spread the word and help everyone make informed decisions about their mortgages!
Stay tuned for more insights and tips on navigating the mortgage market. And remember, I’m always here to help you with your mortgage needs. Let’s make your homeownership dreams a reality!
Stuart Lessels
Your “Go To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and beyond
(705) 445-1234
Feel free to share this with your clients and colleagues. It’s always good to stay informed and be prepared for what’s coming next in the market! 😊
P.S. If you need any mortgage advice or have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m here to help all across Ontario! 🏡📞
Stress Test No More: Easier Mortgage Renewals Ahead!
November 24, 2024
The End of the Stress Test for Mortgage Renewals: What You Need to Know
What is this Stress Test?
The mortgage stress test was introduced to ensure that borrowers could still make their mortgage payments if they experienced financial shocks, such as an increase in mortgage interest rates or an increase in household expenses. This test required federally regulated financial institutions to ensure borrowers could handle their mortgage payments at a qualifying rate of 5.25% or two percentage points above the contract rate, whichever was higher.
The Recent Change
As of November 21, 2024, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has announced that borrowers with uninsured mortgages will no longer need to undergo a stress test when switching providers at the time of mortgage renewal. This change aims to correct the imbalance between insured and uninsured homeowners at the time of mortgage renewal.
What Does This Mean for Homeowners?
Previously, homeowners with uninsured mortgages (those with a down payment of 20% or more) had to pass a stress test to qualify for a new mortgage when switching lenders at renewal. This requirement often limited competition and made it challenging for borrowers to find better mortgage rates. With the removal of the stress test for straight switches of uninsured mortgages, homeowners can now switch lenders more easily without the need to requalify at potentially higher rates.
The Impact on the Mortgage Market
This change is expected to have several positive impacts on the mortgage market:
- Increased Competition: By removing the stress test requirement, more lenders will be able to compete for borrowers' business, potentially leading to better mortgage rates and terms for homeowners.
- Greater Flexibility: Homeowners will have more flexibility to switch lenders without the fear of not qualifying under the stress test, making it easier to find a mortgage that suits their needs.
- Reduced Financial Strain: Borrowers who were previously unable to switch lenders due to the stress test may now find it easier to manage their mortgage payments and reduce their financial strain.
What Should Homeowners Do?
If you are a homeowner with an uninsured mortgage and are approaching your renewal date, here are a few steps you can take to make the most of this change:
- Review Your Current Mortgage: Take a close look at your current mortgage terms and interest rate. Determine if switching lenders could offer you better terms or a lower interest rate.
- Shop Around: With the stress test requirement removed, it's a good time to shop around and compare offers from different lenders. Look for competitive rates and favorable terms that align with your financial goals.
- Consult a Mortgage Broker: As your friendly “Go To” Mortgage Broker, I can help you navigate the mortgage renewal process and find the best options available. Feel free to reach out for personalized advice and assistance.
Conclusion
The end of the stress test for mortgage renewals is a significant change that brings more flexibility and opportunities for homeowners. By understanding the implications of this change and taking proactive steps, you can make informed decisions that benefit your financial well-being.
Keep smiling and happy house hunting! 🏡😊
Cheers, Stuart Lessels Your “Go To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and beyond stuart@housenow.ca (705) 445-1234
Feel free to share this with your clients and colleagues. It’s always good to stay informed and be prepared for what’s coming next in the market! 😊
P.S. If you need any mortgage advice or have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m here to help all across Ontario! 🏡📞
Trump's Win: What It Means for Canadian Mortgages!
November 13, 2024
In case you didn't hear, Donald Trump was elected to be the next US President, and there just may be implications on us here in Canada!
Trump's election victory has already set off a wave of market reactions, sparking a surge in equities, crypto markets, and bond yields, which drive fixed mortgage rate pricing in Canada. For Canadian mortgage holders and homebuyers, the ripple effects were immediate, with some lenders already nudging rates higher. But what does Trump's win really mean for the Canadian economy—and for those with mortgages?
Trump's pro-growth policies and tax cut promises are fueling optimism in the U.S., which is spilling over to Canada. A healthy U.S. economy is the single most important factor for Canada, regardless of who is in charge. However, while Trump's tax cuts may boost growth, they could also balloon U.S. debt—meaning more government bonds hitting the market, which could depress bond prices and raise yields, putting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.
On the other hand, Trump's proposed tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, as well as lower tax rates and lighter regulation, could shift interest rate policy in the U.S. as his promised policies risk higher inflation. Higher inflation would mean the U.S. Federal Reserve could be slower to cut interest rates, and markets are already shifting their bets on how low the central bank is likely to go on rates. This could have implications for Canadian rates and the loonie.
As the Bank of Canada works through its own rate cuts to address the cooling economy, it has to keep the U.S. economy and the Fed’s policy in mind. As the value of the Canadian dollar is reduced relative to the U.S. dollar, that is also inflationary, because many things that we import are denominated in U.S. dollars. This means that the Bank of Canada may have to adjust its rate cuts accordingly, which could impact mortgage rates in Canada.
In my opinion, Trump's election victory could lead to more aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as his administration's policies are expected to stoke economic stimulus. When the U.S. cuts rates, traditionally Canada follows, which means lower mortgage payments in the short term and more people getting into the real estate market. However, the potential for higher inflation and increased U.S. debt could also put upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates in Canada in the longer term.
Unfortunately, what happens in the US does affect us in Canada. It’s important to think about these developments and how they impact us.By anticipating all the potential implications of Trump’s policies we can present more informed mortgage options and better navigate the market conditions.
Keep smiling and happy house hunting! 🏡😊
Cheers,
Stuart Lessels
Your “Go To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and beyond
(705) 445-1234
Feel free to share this with your clients and colleagues. It’s always good to stay informed and be prepared for what’s coming next in the market! 😊
P.S. If you need any mortgage advice or have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m here to help all across Ontario! 🏡📞
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