2024 Real Estate Rollercoaster

Year End Summary 2024: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

As we try to purchase and wrap presents for this holiday season, it is a great time to wrap up 2024. From interest rate changes to shifts in mortgage rules, this year has been a rollercoaster for first-time homebuyers, investors, those refinancing mortgages, and realtors alike. Let's dive into the highlights and lowlights of 2024 and see how these changes have impacted the real estate market, and see what could be ahead for 2025.

The Good

Interest Rates Drop

One of the most significant changes this year was the Bank of Canada's decision to reduce its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 3.25%1. This move marked the fifth consecutive rate cut since June 2024, aimed at supporting economic growth and maintaining inflation within its target range1. Lower interest rates have made borrowing cheaper, which is great news for homebuyers and those looking to refinance their mortgages.

Increased Housing Sales

Despite the economic challenges, housing sales saw a notable increase in 2024. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales rose by 12% compared to the previous year2. This surge was driven by lower interest rates and a growing demand for housing in suburban and rural areas as more people embraced remote work.

The Bad

Mortgage Rule Changes

While lower interest rates were a boon for many, changes in mortgage rules added some complexity to the process. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) introduced stricter stress test requirements for uninsured mortgages, making it harder for some buyers to qualify for loans3. This move was intended to ensure that borrowers could handle potential future rate increases, but it also meant that some prospective buyers had to adjust their expectations or delay their home purchases.

Market Volatility

The real estate market experienced significant volatility this year, with fluctuating interest rates and housing prices. The uncertainty surrounding the global economy, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, contributed to this instability. As a result, both buyers and sellers had to navigate a more unpredictable market landscape.

The Ugly

Economic Challenges

Canada's economic growth was lower than expected, with the third-quarter growth coming in below the Bank of Canada's predictions. Early indicators suggest that the GDP might also miss its fourth-quarter target1. Despite multiple rounds of rate cuts, demand did not pick up as anticipated, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.8%, a level not seen since eight years ago outside of the pandemic. These economic challenges have had a ripple effect on the real estate market, impacting affordability and client decisions.

Natural Disasters

The year 2024 was marked by several significant natural disasters that had a profound impact on Ontario and Canada as a whole. Ontario experienced one of its worst wildfire seasons in recent history, with fires ravaging large areas of forest and threatening numerous communities. Eastern Canada, including parts of Ontario, faced severe flooding due to heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt, causing extensive property damage and financial losses. Additionally, Ontario witnessed an increase in tornado activity, with several powerful tornadoes causing destruction in their paths.

These natural disasters led to higher insurance premiums, stricter building codes, and a shift in homebuyer preferences towards safer areas.

Looking Ahead to 2025

As we look forward to 2025, several trends and potential changes could shape the real estate market based on the events of 2024:

Continued Low Interest Rates

Experts predict that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future, making it a favorable time for consumers to borrow and invest. The Bank of Canada expects GDP growth to gradually strengthen, supported by lower interest rates, increased consumer spending, and robust demand for exports. This could lead to continued growth in housing sales and refinancing activities.

Stricter Mortgage Regulations

The trend of tightening mortgage regulations is likely to continue into 2025. The OSFI may introduce additional measures to ensure the stability of the housing market and protect borrowers from potential financial risks. Prospective homebuyers should be prepared for more stringent qualification criteria and stress tests.

Increased Demand for Suburban and Rural Properties

The shift towards remote work is expected to persist, driving demand for suburban and rural properties, like the Georgian Bay area! As more people seek larger homes with more space, we may see continued growth in these areas. This trend could also lead to increased development and infrastructure improvements in suburban and rural communities.

Focus on Sustainable and Resilient Housing

In response to the natural disasters of 2024, there will likely be a greater emphasis on building sustainable and resilient housing. This could include stricter building codes, increased use of eco-friendly materials, and a focus on energy efficiency4. Homebuyers and investors may prioritize properties that are designed to withstand extreme weather events and reduce environmental impact.

Impact of the Incoming US President

The incoming US President's policies are expected to have a significant impact on the Canadian economy and interest rates. President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to impose additional tariffs on Canadian exports, which could lead to a 5% hit to Canadian export volumes and risk sending the Canadian economy into a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026. This could result in increased economic hardship within Canada, particularly since trade ties have deepened since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) came into effect in 2020. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will influence the Bank of Canada's actions, potentially leading to further interest rate adjustments.

Why Should You Use a Mortgage Broker Like Me?

Navigating the mortgage market can be tricky, but that's where Mortgage Brokers like me come in. With over a decade of experience and a lifetime of insights from my father's 55-year legacy in the real estate industry, I have the knowledge and expertise to find the best mortgage solutions for even the most challenging financing situations.

Here are a few reasons why you should always contact a Mortgage Broker like me:

• Expertise: With years of experience and a deep understanding of the mortgage market, I can provide valuable insights and advice.
• Access to Multiple Lenders: I work with a variety of lenders, giving you access to a wide range of mortgage products and rates.
• Personalized Service: I take the time to understand your unique needs and find the best mortgage solution for you.
• Save Time and Money: I handle the legwork, saving you time and ensuring you get the best deal possible.

What Should You Do Next?

If you have any questions or need assistance with your mortgage, don't hesitate to contact me. I'm here to help you navigate the mortgage market and secure the best deal for your new or renewing mortgage. Remember, it's always a good idea to consult with a Mortgage Broker to ensure you get the best deal possible.

Feel free to share this article with your friends, family, and colleagues. Let's spread the word and help everyone make informed decisions about their mortgages!

Stay tuned for more insights and tips on navigating the mortgage market, and enjoy the upcoming holiday season! Remember, I'm always here to help you with your mortgage needs. Let's make your homeownership dreams a reality!

Stuart Lessels

Your “Go To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and beyond

stuart@housenow.ca

(705) 445-1234

Feel free to share this with your clients and colleagues. It’s always good to stay informed and be prepared for what’s coming next in the market! 😊

P.S. If you need any mortgage advice or have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m here to help all across Ontario! 🏡📞