As we wrapped up another year, I want to start by saying this:
I hope you had a wonderful Holiday — and welcome to 2026. 🎉
If the last few years taught us anything, it’s that mortgages are no longer a “set it and forget it” decision.
And that’s exactly why this year matters.
Where We’re Starting 2026 From
In December 2025, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady again — and more importantly, explained why.
Three themes stood out:
- Inflation is cooling, but not evenly
- Economic growth is slowing, not collapsing
- Past rate hikes are still working through the system
Translation?👉 The heavy lifting is done.👉 Now it’s about watching, waiting, and managing risk.
The 2026 Interest Rate Outlook (Plain English)
Here’s the honest forecast most banks won’t put in an ad:
❌ No rapid rate cuts
❌ No surprise spikes
✅ A range-bound year
Most economists expect:
- A stable overnight rate for much of 2026
- Possible modest cuts later in the year if inflation continues easing
- Fixed rates to move before the headlines, not after
That means waiting for the “perfect” rate could cost you more than acting early.
What This Means If You’re Renewing in 2026
This is the big one.
If you locked in a rate under 2% years ago, Congratulations…and yes, 2026 is your reality check — but it’s not a disaster if handled properly.
Smart renewal strategy in 2026 looks like:
- Reviewing term length, not just rate
- Considering blended or staggered renewals
- Protecting cash flow, not gambling on cuts
- Using equity strategically, not emotionally
👉 The biggest mistake? Letting your lender auto-renew you.
Buyers: Timing Matters Less Than Structure
Waiting for rates to drop before buying rarely works.
Why?
- Prices move faster than rates
- Qualification rules don’t loosen overnight
- Competition returns before affordability headlines
In 2026, the buyers who win are the ones who:
- Get approved early
- Understand stress-test math
- Lock flexibility into their mortgage
Investors: Debt Structure Is the Real Risk
2026 separates casual investors from strategic ones.
The question isn’t:
“Will rates drop?”
It’s:
“Is my portfolio structured to survive if they don’t?”
Key focuses:
- Cash-flow buffers
- Fixed vs variable mix
- Access to equity without forced sales
The Real Opportunity in 2026
This is a planning year, not a panic year.
The clients who do best in 2026 will:
- Review early
- Ask better questions
- Stop chasing headlines
And that’s where good advice still matters.
Final Thought
Rates don’t crash markets.
Bad planning does.
If you’re renewing, buying, investing, or just want clarity — now is the time to talk strategy, not speculation.
Stuart Lessels
Your “Go To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and beyond
📞 (705) 445-1234